Breeders’ Cup ’23

Bankroll

  

Friday:  Wagered $93.  Collected $41.30.  Refunds $7.50.  

Saturday:  Wagered $234.  Collected $637.80.  No refunds.  

Net profit = $359.60.   

 

 

Breeders’ Cup 2023

Santa Anita

Friday, November 3, 2023

Saturday, November 4, 2023

 

  This post includes both days.  Total wagers equal $327.  Of that amount, $200 is devoted to “White Abarrio” in The Classic.   The remaining $127 can be described as “playing around the edges”.  

  Good luck to all.  

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Friday, November 3rd

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 1. Post time 2:30 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.  The Qatar Golden Mile Stakes. Purse = $150K.  An 8 furlong, ungraded turf stake restricted to two year-olds.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “Astronomer” at odds of 30-1.   He was ridden by Ryan Moore and trained by Simon Callaghan. 

Joel’s #5 “Go With Gusto” (5-2) might be one fast filly, but #4 “Ultra Power” (3-1) is out of the dam “Unique Bella” who banked $1.2 million on the track.  Those 3-1 odds are a pipe dream.   The wager:  $2 Double #4 with #11, then $1 Pick 3:  4 w 11 w 4, then $0.50 Pick 5:  4 w 5/11 w 4 w 9 w 4.  Total = $4.   

 

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 2.   Post time 3:05 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.   The Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes.  A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to California state-bred two year old fillies.  Purse = $175K.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “Big Switch” at odds of 3.30 to 1.  She was ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. and trained by John Sadler. 

Johnny V. takes the ride on #11 “Crazy Hot” (5-1).   This lass may appreciate the outside post position much more than something in the middle of the pack.  Her dam-side shows stamina but is not overly quick.   Therefore, she will need a hot pace up front.  Don’t look for her early.  Next, the wagering public will open their wallets for jockey Mike Smith’s #5 “Mirinda” (8-5) who was dazzling at Delmar in September.  Notice that she was even money in a field of ten.  The “word was out” on her.  She must be used in the exotics.   The wager:  $2 Win #11, then $2 Double #11 with #4.  Total = $4.   

 

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 3.  Post time 3:40 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Senator Ken Maddy Stakes.  A 6 1/2 furlong downhill turf sprint for fillies and mares.  Purse = $150K.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “A G Indy” at odds of 6.70 to 1.  She was ridden by Umberto Rispoli and trained by Doug O’Neill.  

Flavien Prat takes the mount on #4 “Elm Drive” (6-1) who won on this course on May 23rd.   Even though her dam was unraced, she has been an OK producer.  Her maternal grand dam was also a producer.  Now, her last dirt race was lousy - - right?  The fact is that she was not running against the Little Sisters of the Poor  recently.   She looks “live” and gets class relief today.   The wager:  $3 Win and Place #4.   Total = $6.   

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 4.  Post time 4:15 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Golden State Juvenile Stakes.  A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to California site-bred two year olds.     Purse = $175K.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “Finneus” at odds of 4-1.  He was ridden by Joel Rosario and trained by Walter Solis.

He has been off for nearly three months, so maybe the wagering public will forget #9 “Tiger in My Tank” (15-1).   His dam won over $400K sprinting in state-bred races.   At this price, he his hard to ignore.   The wager:  $2 Double #9 w #4, the $1 Pick 3:  9 w 4 w 7/8.  Total = $4.   

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Friday Santa Anita Race No. 5.  Post time: 5:00 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf Sprint.   A 5 furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million.

Last year’s winner: “Mischief Magic”, owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby, and ridden by William Buick.   This colt won at odds of 6-1. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “The Platinum Queen” who finished 30 lengths behind  at odds of 6-1.

Trainer Michael Appleby’s #4 “Big Evs” (3-1) smoked ‘em at Doncaster in September.  This two year-old has already won over $225K.  He should be formidable.  The wager:  $5 W/P #4, then $2 Double #4 with 7/8.  Total = $14.   

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 6. Post time 5:40 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Filly.  An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year-old fillies.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

Last year’s winner:  “Wonder Wheel” at odds of 6-1.  She is owned by D.J. Stable LLC, trained by Norm Casse, and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione.  Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Chop Chop” who finished dead last as the betting favorite. 

The daughter of BC Champ “Beholder” is in this race, i.e. #7 “Tamara” (4-5).   She is a speedball and will be formidable.   She is a “must use” in exotic wagers.   Next, just to her outside is #8 “Esprit Enchant” (20-1) who could be anything - - - and at 20+ to 1, I just can’t leave her off my ticket.  Her dam-side is not shabby.  The wager:  $2 Place #8, then $2 Double 7/8 with 3.   Total = $6.   

 

Friday Santa Anita  Race No. 7.  Post time: 6:20 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Fillies Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year old fillies.  Purse:  $1 Million.

 

Last year’s winner: “Mediate”, owned by Magnier, et al, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Ryan Moore.   She was the 2-1 betting favorite.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Pleasant Passage” who finished second at 6-1 odds.  

Let’s start with a few notes here.  First, a Euro did win this race last year, but this particular race has largely been dominated by North American runners.  Second, to ignore the September 30th race by #6 “Porta Fortuna” (5-1) is stupid.   She has already banked over $400K.   Third, another Euro to watch is #14 “Les Pavots” (8-1) who has won three races in France.  Her post position draw was lousy though.  Next, the pick is not Chad’s #12 “Hard to Justify” (6-1), winner of the Miss Grillo against ten other rivals in New York in October.  Her chances from a wide post position are dim.  Finally, the pick is Rigney Racing’s #3 “Buchu” (6-1) who did not show much at Saratoga.   She moved forward in the Fall and won the Jessamine at Keeneland from an outside post.  Her dam “Flowering Peach” earned about $50K on the track while her maternal grand dam banked over $300K.   She should be formidable.  The wager:  $15 W/P/S #3.   Total = $45.    

    

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 8.  Post time:  7:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.

  The Juvenile.  An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year olds.  Purse = $2 Million

Last year’s winner: “Forte”, owned by Mike Repole and St. Elias Stable, trained by Todd Pletcher, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.  He was the 5-1 second choice to “Cave Rock” who was the 1-2 favorite.   

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Verifying” who finished 12 lengths behind the winner at 17-1 odds. 

Looking at this 2023 field, I’m expecting a cavalry charge into the first turn, and expecting blistering early fractions.   Thus, I’m looking for “a stalker”, and #4 “Timberlake” (4-1) fits that bill.  His October 27th a.m. timed workout shows fitness and willingness.  The wager:  $2 W/P #4, then $1 Pick 3:  4 w 2/8 w 2.  Total = $6.   

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 9.  Post time:  7:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million.

  

Last year’s winner: “Victoria Road” at 5-1 odds, owned by Magnier, et al, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Ryan Moore.    

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Silver Knott” who lost by a nose at 8-5.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien won this race last year, and this year he has two formidable contenders:  #2 “River Tiber” (3-1) and #8 “Unquestionable” (4-1).  His other entrant drew an extremely wide post position.   While neither of the top two hail from an accomplished female side of the breeding, they are not that shabby either.   When making horizontal wagers, it would be wise to use both.   The wager:  $2 Double #8 with #2.  Total = $2.   

 

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 10.  Post time 8:10 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.   A 6 furlong dirt race.     Purse = $100K.

Trainer Mark Glatt’s #2 “Ghost of Midnight” (4-1) was very competitive on October 8th.   Right back!  The wager:  $2 Win #2.  Total = $2.   

Total for Friday, November 3rd =  $93.

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Breeders’ Cup 2023

Santa Anita

Saturday, November 4th

Saturday Santa Anita  Race No. 1. Post time 1:10 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.   The Aftercare Alliance.  A Grade II, 13 furlong dirt race run under allowance conditions.  Purse = $250K.

No pick.  Short field.  Pass.

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 2. Post time 1:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Twilight Derby.  A Grade II, 9 furlong turf stake restricted to 3 year-olds.  Purse =  $250K.

Back to the turf for trainer Bob Baffert’s #3 “Reincarnate” (8-1).   He had no success so far, but his dirt success has been marginal.   His very smart connections paid $775K for him at a sale.  Against this bunch, he is a player.   The wager:  $2 Double #3 with #5 and turn the page.  Total = $2.   

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Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 3.   Post time:  2:30 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Dirt Mile.  A Grade 1,  8 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $1 Million.

 

Last year’s winner: “Cody’s Wish”, owned by Godolphin, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by Junior Alvarado.  He was the wagering favorite at 2-1 odds.    Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Laurel River” who was scratched. 

The MOTO wager is #3 “Cody’s Wish” (9-5).   However, if he has lost a step, then trainer Todd Pletcher’s #5 “Charge It” (5-1) is more than capable.    The wager:  $2 Double #5 with #6.  Total = $2.   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 4.  Post time:  3:10 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Turf.  A Grade 1, 10 furlong grass race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Tuesday” at 9 1/2 furlongs.  This 3 year-old filly is owned by Westerberg, Magnier, Tabor, and Smith, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Ryan Moore.  She won at odds of 4-1.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Nashwa”, the 3-1 favorite who finished 3 lengths behind the winner.

Frequent readers of this blog know that entrants who have run at Deauville (France) get a second look.  However, entrants who have won at Deauville get selected and bet.   Trainer John Gosden’s #6 “Inspiral” (5-2) won at Deauville in August, then won at Newmarket in October.   Old saying:  “When you see a fast train, either get on or get out of the way.”  Oh - - and those 5-2 odds are too low.   Look for about 7-2 by post time.  The wager:  $2 W/P #6, then $1 Pick 3:  6 w 1 w 6.  Total = $5.   

 

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 5.   Post time: 3:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Sprint.  A Grade 1, seven furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse: $1 Million.  

Last year’s winner: “Goodnight Olive” at odds of 2-1.  She was owned by First Row Partners and Team Hanley,  trained by Chad Brown, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.    Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Frank’s Rockette” who finished 16 lengths behind the winner.

 

Chad’s #1 “Goodnight Olive” (6-5) is still the champ.   Her 2023 races have been good, not great, but still good.   Chad knows how to get them ready.   Oh - - and those 6-5 odds?   No.  She will be closer to 2-1 by post time. The wager:  $2 Double #1 w #6.   Total = $2.     

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 6.  Post time:  4:30 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Mile.  A Grade 1, 8 furlong turf race.  Purse:  $2 Million.

  

Last year’s winner:  “Modern Games” at odds of 7-5.    He was owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby,  and ridden by William Buick.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Modern Games”.

Ouch!  Trainer Charles Appleby’s #14 “Master of the Seas” (7-2) drew an outside post.   If he had an inside post, he would be a logical contender.  From Post Number 14?   Good luck with that.   Next, a more logical choice would be the Japanese invader #10 “Songline” (5-2) who just missed from Post 10 in his most recent start.  Finally, the filly #6 “Mawj” (4-1) from Godolphin will be formidable.   She just might take the lead into the first turn and never look back.   Look out!  The wager:   $2 W/P #6, then  $1 Pick 3:  6 w 6 w 9.  Total = $5.    

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 7.  Post time: 5:10 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Distaff.  A Grade 1, 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million.

  

Last year’s winner: “Malathaat” at odds of 3-1.  She is owned by Shadwell Stables., trained by Todd Pletcher, and ridden by John Velazquez.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Malathaat”.

Trainer Brad Cox’s #4 “Idiomatic” (5-2) has won seven times in eight starts this year.

Trainer Brendan Walsh’s #3 “Pretty Mischievous” (8-1) has won four of six against three year-olds, including the Kentucky Oaks.   However, we are not looking for the best horse.  Instead we are looking for the entrant who is peaking at this time of year, and I think I’ve got one.  Trainer Chad Brown has been protecting #6 “Search Results” (5-1) by running her in races with lesser competition.  In four starts this year, she has banked over $400K, and she is fresh as a daisy.   The fact that Irad Ortiz, Jr. has accepted the ride provides some degree of encouragement.   The wager:  $2 Double #6 with #9.   Total = $2.   

  

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 8.  Post time: 5:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf.  A 12 furlong grass race.  Purse:  $4 Million.

  

Last year’s winner: “Rebel’s Romance” at odds of 6-1.    H was owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby, and ridden by James Doyle. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Nations Pride”, the 3-1 favorite who finished a non-threatening fifth.

It is hard to go past #9 “Mostahdaf” (5-2) given that other competition failed to show up.   The odds will be closer to 9-5 by post time.   Finishing the exacta could be jockey Ryan Moore’s #3 “Auguste Rodin” (3-1).  When this colt wants to run, he can be formidable.   The question is will he want to run after a 5,000 mile journey?   The wager:  $10 Double #9 with #3.   Total = $10.   

   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 9.  Post time 6:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Classic.  A 10 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $6 Million.

Last year’s winner:  The undefeated “Flightline” at 2-5 odds.  He was owned by multiple owners, trained by John Sadler, and ridden by Flavien Prat.  Last year’s pick by this blogger:  “Flightline”.

Welcome to the most contentious BC Classic in a few years.   Any handicapper could get lost in all of the statistics.   Do we need to do that?   I don’t think so.   

In the recent past, when we saw both “Arrogate” and “Flightline” before their BC wins, they were both awesome from a visual standpoint.   As we constructed our tickets, we just kept thinking about those visually impressive races.   Well, in my humble opinion, the same thing happened in 2023, and the race was The Whitney at Saratoga where #3 “White Abarrio” (4-1) won by six lengths.   After the race, his trainer said “We know what he wants to do.  He has told us.  He wants lots of time between races.”   

  Since The Whitney, I just have not seen any other horse who was that impressive.   Therefore, “White Abarrio” is the pick, and I will not be shy.   The wager:  $100 W/P #3.  Total = $200.     

   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 10.  Post time:  7:25 P.M.   Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf Sprint.  A Grade 1, 5  furlong  turf race.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Caravel”, a five year-old mare.  She is owned by Qatar Racing, Madaket, and Detampel, trained by Brad Cox, and ride by Tyler Gaffalione  at odds of 43-1.  Last year’s distance was 5 1/2 furlongs. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Highfield Princess” who finished 4th at 3-1 odds.

Both #5 “Live in the Dream” (9-2) and #6 “Gear Jockey” (12-1) lit up the tote board this year.  Also, trainer Michael Trombetta’s #12 “Arzak” (6-1) did it twice.   He did it without Lasix at Keeneland vs. eleven other entrants.   He is “the pick”.    The wager:  $2 W/P #12.  Total = $4.   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 11.  Post time: 8:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Sprint.  A Grade 1, 6 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $2 Million.  

 

Last year’s winner: “Elite Power”, owned by Juddmonte, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.,  at odds of 5-1.

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Aloha West” at 13-1.  

This is a most competitive race, and if you pick the winner, you will get paid.   Trainer Bill Mott’s #8 “Elite Power” (9-5) will be closer to 5-2 when they spring the latch.   His connections decided he would need 3 months to get ready for this test.  As for who will finish second, pick ‘em.  The wager:  $2 Double #8 with #8.   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 12. Post time 8:30 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.   A 6 1/2 furlong downhill turf race for fillies and mares.   Purse:  $100K.

Trainer Mark Casse must have had space available on the plane for #6 “Woodbine Way” (5-1).  No thanks.  Instead, #8 “Real Fire” (6-1) has shown improvement in her last two starts plus shows a rather quick a.m. timed workout on October 20th.  No wager.   

 

Total for Saturday, November 4th = $234.  

Total Wagers for two days = $327.  

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Getting Ready for  BC 2023

Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Posting Plans

 

   First, I regret skipping Saratoga’s 2023 meet.  I was able to watch all races on TV here in the Albany area, but was unable to do the research needed to make any logical wagers.   As luck would have it, the weather did not cooperate either.  

  Since Labor Day, stamina has improved tenfold and I have been following the sport with great interest. 

  Only one posting for both days will be made on Thursday, November 2nd before 12 Noon.   

The Handicapping

  Veterans of  Breeders’ Cup wagering know there is only one way to handicap.  We are not looking for the best horse to cash a ticket.  Nope.   We are selecting horses trending upward at this time of the year.  

  And now for a little history.  

  In a taped interview for the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, legendary trainer H. Allen Jerkens discussed “Sky Beauty”, his wonderful filly who banked $1.2 million on the track from 1992-95.   He said she was never any good in the Fall, and he tried everything with her but nothing worked.  She just would not be effective in October.     On the other hand, a New York bred gelding named “Evening Attire” was just the opposite.   When the first warm day of Spring happened, he was done for 5 months.  Then, when the first cold day of September happened, “Evening Attire” would put himself into training on the farm.  He would run all day in the field and kick and scream until he was taken to a race track.   

  No, “Evening Attire” was not Breeders’ Cup material.   When the gate opened, he would drop back in the field.  You almost needed a search warrant to find him, until the field rounded the far turn.  Then “Evening Attire” would unleash his finishing kick, and usually cash a check.  

The Sources

   As the BC races approach, I like to read “Blood Horse” and “Horse Racing Nation”.  Both are .coms and both are free.   Once in a while, the reader can glean a trend or two from these outlets.   I also use pedigreequery.com to look at pedigrees.   My friend “Spongie” uses clocker reports available from DRF.   He is looking for trends too. 

OK - - that’s enough for now.  Thanks to all who sent notes of encouragement, especially Tom from Wisconsin and from my friends (whom I have never met) from Panama.   See you on November 2nd.     

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   No posts for the 2023 Saratoga Meet due to illness.  

   Hope to post for 2023 Breeders Cup.  

 

Belmont Park

Friday and Saturday, June 9 & 10, 2023

Weather watch:   Iffy.  Could be a shower.  Not sure about the smokey haze.  

 

Short Note.

This is the only post for both days. 

Editorial Opinion. 

Race fans are increasingly aware that field size in stakes races continues to shrink in this “non-Lasix era”.   The simple fact is that horses treated with Lasix on race day can run more often each year.  Small field size in any race generally reduces bettor interest.  Continuance of this Lasix ban will seriously affect the industry.  

Friday’s Card

Race No. 1.  Post time 12:50 P.M.   A 6 furlong dirt race restricted to maiden NYS Breds.    Purse = $75K.

Only seven entrants.  Ugh!  

In the sales ring, #3 “Thank You Jon” (5-1) fetched $120K, probably based on his maternal grand-dam’s progeny.   His most recent a.m. timed workouts have been quick.  The wager:  $2 Win #3, then $2 Double #3 with #1.  Total = $4. 

  

Race No. 2.  Post time 1:22 P.M.   A 6 furlong turf race.    Purse = $95K.

From the rail, #1 “Bold Journey” (6-5) looks too tough for this bunch.  Take the short price.  The wager:  $1 Pick 3:  1 w 5 w 1, then $1 Pick 4:  1 w 5 w 1 w 8.  Total = $2.  

Race No. 3.  Post time 1:55 P.M.   An 8 furlong dirt race restricted to maiden NYS Breds.  Purse = $75K.

Again.  Only seven entrants.  Ugh!

Centennial Farms may have paid over $200K for #6 “Meteorite” (6-5) but he has yet to show anything.  His dam’s progeny have really tailed off in production recently.   No thank you.  Next, reinstated trainer Richard Dutrow’s #5 “Blue Plate Special” (3-1) has caught mud in his only two starts, and the last start was not shabby.  His dam-side is more promising.  The wager:  $2 Double #5 with #1.  Total = $2.   

Race No. 4.  Post time 2:28 P.M.  The Just A Game Stakes.  An 8 furlong, Grade I turf race restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse = $500K.

Last year’s winner:  “Regal Glory” at odds of 1:40 to 1.  She beat four other starters. 

Not a race to place a wager.  First, those 1-2 morning line odds on #1 “In Italian” are too low.  New York bettors will make her 1-1 or 4-5, but not 1-2 against this field.   She is the mare to beat and must be used in doubles, pick 3’s, etc. The wager = $0.       

Race No. 5.  Post time 3:02 P.M.  An 8 furlong dirt race for horses that have started for a claiming price of $50K or less.   Purse = $65K.

The entrants have all been disappointments in their respective careers, and none bigger than Robert Evans’ homebred #8 “Endowed” (3-1).  However, this just might be a field he can beat.  The wager:  $2 Double #8 with #8.  Total = $2.  

 

Race No. 6.  Post time 3:35 P.M.  A 6 furlong sprint with conditions. Purse = $100K.

Wide open here!   Trainer Linda Rice’s #8 “Dot’s Dollar” (6-1) was competitive on April 28th, which was just one week after winning.  He fits nicely in here.  The wager:  $3 Win and Place #8, then $2 Double #8 with #2.  Total = $8.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 4:08 P.M.   A 7 furlong turf sprint restricted to NYS Breds   Purse = $80K.

Trainer Mark Casse’s #2 “Conman” (3-1) did everything but win on May 19th.  Any race close to that one wins this heat.  The wager:  $3 Win #2, then $2 Double #2 with #8.  Total = $5.

  

Race No. 8.  Post time 4:41 P.M.  The New York.  A 10 furlong Grade I  turf stake restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse= $600K.

Last year’s winner:  “Bleecker Street” at nearly 3-1. 

Trainer Charles Appleby entered #8 “With the Moonlight” (9-2) at Newmarket for a public workout.  Today is ‘GO DAY’.  Look for her in the final furlong, if at all.  The wager:  $3 Win and Place #8, then $5 New York/Metropolitan Double: #8 “With the Moonlight” with #1 “Cody’s Wish”.  Total = $11.  

 

Race No. 9.  Post time 5:14 P.M     The Acorn.  A Grade I, 8 1/2  furlong dirt stakes race for 3 year-old fillies.  Purse = $500K.

Last year’s winner;  “Matareya” at odds of 0.30 to 1.  She won by six lengths.

Trainer Todd Pletcher must have thought #5 “Munny’s Gold” (9-5) would have an easy win in the Churchill stake, so he opted for the one-turn race vs. the two-turn Kentucky Oaks.  Today’s Acorn is run at one turn, making “Munny’s Gold” a very formidable foe.   Next, Chad’s #8 “Accede” could easily run second here, but there will be no catching the winner.   The wager:  $2 Exacta #5 beating #8, then  $5 Double #5 “Munny’s Gold” with #4 “Secret Oath” in the Ogden Phipps.  Total = $7.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 5:47 P.M. The Belmont Gold Cup.  A 16 furlong Grade II turf stake.  Purse = $250K.

Last year’s winner: “Loft” at nearly 3-1.

Note:  The purse for this year’s race has been reduced from last year. 

Trainer Charles Appleby and jockey William Buick did not make the trip from Europe to just look at the tall buildings.  Their #2 “Siskany” (8-5) should save ground until the final turn, then kick free to the wire and win by two lengths.   The main challenge will be posed by #13 “The Grey Wizard” (10-1).  This gelding’s jockey, Hall of Fame Johnny V., will save ground until the final turn, then try to unleash a furious kick.   

The wager:  $3 Double #2 with #7, and $1 Double #13 with #7, then $5 Gold Cup/Belmont Double:  #2 “Siskany”  with #7 “Hit Show”.  Total = $9.  

Race No. 11.  Post time 6:19 P.M.  The Intercontinental.  A Grade III, 6 furlong turf sprint stake restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse = $200K.

Last year’s winner:  “Caravel” at nearly 3-1. 

Last year’s winner opted to face the boys tomorrow in the $400K Jaipur.  At least we will get to see her.    Today we should expect a 7 - 5 - pick ‘em finish.  So the pick is #7 “Bubble Rock” (5-2) to win, with #5 “Bay Storm” (3-1) finishing second.  As for #3 “Clitheroe” (15-1), while she did compete at Deauville, her races on the island of Great Britain were just plain lousy.   If she wins, I lose.  The wager:  $2 Win #7.  Total = $2.    

Total Wagers for Friday, June 9th = $52

 

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Belmont Park 

Saturday, June 10, 2022

Weather watch:  Showers - - maybe.  Not sure about the smokey haze yet.  

  

Race No. 1.  Post time 11:20 A.M.  A 6 furlong turf race restricted to maiden fillies and mares.    Purse = $90K.

Skip - - too early for me.  

Race No. 2.  Post time 11:54 A.M.   A 7 furlong turf race restricted to NYS bred fillies and mares.   Purse = $80K.

Skip - - too early for me.   

Race No. 3.  Post time 12:29 P.M.  The True North.  A 6 1/2 furlong Grade II dirt sprint stake.     Purse = $250K.

Last year’s winner:  “Jackie’s Warrior” by 5 lengths at 1-4 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Jackie’s Warrior”. 

Trainer Bill Mott’s #4 “Elite Power” (4-5) is the pick, but there is no value in the race.  The wager:  $1 Pick 3:  4 w 1 w 1/6.   Total = $2.     

Race No. 4.  Post time 1:06 P.M.  A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to horses that have not won twice.  .    Purse = $95K.

When near the rail, #1 “American Law” (4-1) seems to run better.  Let’s play that angle in this wide-open race.  The wager:  $2 Win and Place #1, then $0.50 Pick 4:  1 w 1/6 w 5 w 4.  Total = $5.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 1:44 P.M.   The Poker.  An 8 furlong, Grade III turf race.  Purse = $200K.

Trainer Todd Pletcher’s #6 “Emmanuel” (9-2) has stayed competitive.  Yes, the French invader did impress, but that was two months ago.  The wager:  $2 Win #6, then $2 Double #6 with #5.  Total = $4.  

Race No. 6.  Post time 2:22 P.M.   The Brooklyn.  A 12 furlong, Grade II dirt race.  Purse = $250K.

Last year’s purse was $400K.   Last year’s winner:  “Fearless” at odds of 3 1/2 to 1.  Last year’s pick:  “Max Player” who finished 6th at 7-1 odds.

Midwest invader #5 “Next” (3-1) faltered as the favorite in his last start.  Maybe he will hold on today in this wide-open race.   The wager:  $2 Double 5 w 4, then $1 Pick 3:  5 w 4 w 2/8.   Total = $4.  

 

Race No. 7.  Post time 3:02 P.M.  The Ogden Phipps.  A Grade I, 8 1/2 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $500K.

Last year’s winner:  “Clairiere” at almost 5-1.  Last year’s pick:  “Malathaat” who finished second by a head.

D. Wayne’s #4 “Secret Oath” (2-1) is a competitive sort who missed by a neck in her last race.  She’s the pick.  The wager:   $1 Double #4 with 2/8.  Total = $2.      

Race No. 8.  Post time 3:42 P.M.  The Woody Stephens.  A 7 furlong, Grade 1 dirt stake for three year-olds.  Purse = $400K. 

Last year’s winner:  “Jack Christopher” who won by ten lengths at odds of 2-5. Last year’s pick:  “Jack Christopher”.  

Taking “a flyer” here with #2 “Gun Pilot” (20-1) who started from an outside post at Churchill Downs.  He got hung wide but still tried.  Next, trainer Bob Baffert’s #8 “Fort  Bragg” (5-1) deserves to be in the exotics.  The wager:  $2 Win and Place #2, then $1 Exacta Box 2/8, then $1 Pick 3:  2/8 w 10 w 1.  Total = $8.   

Race No. 9.  Post time 4:19 P.M.   The Jaipur.  A Grade I turf sprint.   Purse = $400K.

Last year’s winner:  “Casa Creed” at 4-1 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Arrest Me Red” who finished 2nd by 1/2 length.

Christophe’s #10 “Big Invasion” (6-1) was a victim of a slow start plus traffic problems in his last race five weeks ago.  Next, while #12 “Caravel” (3-1) is a wonderful mare, the only six year-old mare that I ever bet was “Zenyata”.  Finally, Mark Casse’s #6 “Ice Chocolat” (30-1) will be rolling in the lane.  The wagers:  $0.50 Pick 4:  10 w 1 w 4/8 w 7, then $1 Pick 3:  6/10 w 1 w 4, and finally $2 Win and Place #10.  Total = $7.   

  

Race No. 10.  Post time 5:04 P.M.    The Metropolitan.  A Grade I, 8 furlong dirt stake.    Purse = $1 million.  

Last year’s winner:  “Flightline” at 1-2 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Flightline”. 

With five wins in a row, including the Breeders’ Cup Mile, #1 “Cody’s Wish” (7-5) is the pick until he loses.  The wager:  $0.50 Pick 4:  1 w 4/8 w 7 w 3.  Total = $1.   

 

Race No. 11.  Post time 5:54 P.M.    The Manhattan.   A Grade I, 10 furlong turf stake.     Purse = $750K.

Last year’s winner:  “Tribhuvan” at 19-1 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Santin” who finished 6th.  

Last year, this blogger said “Always look for “a kicker” in these longish turf stakes . . .”  And what happened?  “Tribhuvan” led gate to wire. 

Toss up between #4 “Ottoman Fleet” (5-2) and #8 “Up to the Mark” (8-5).  PIck ‘em?   No.  The pick is #4 “Ottoman Fleet” (5-2).  The wagers:  $2 Win #4, then $1 Pick 3:  4/8 w 7 w  3, and finally $2 Double #4 with #7.  Total = $6.  

   

Race No. 12.  Post time 7:02 P.M.    The Belmont Stakes.  A Grade I, 12 furlong dirt race restricted to three year-olds.   Purse = $1.5 M.

Last year’s winner:  “Mo Donegal” at odds of 2 1/2 to 1.  Last year’s pick:  “Rich Strike” who finished 6th. 

This is a very competitive group, with only one entrant that can be totally tossed out.  The other eight horses all have  shown something to be deserving of entering the starting gate.  Oh, you say - - #1 “Tapit Shoes” (20-1) does not deserve to be here?   Really?  His dam “Awesome Feather” is also the dam of “Cyberknife”, last year’s winner of The Haskell at Monmouth Park.  Next, the pundits will be zooming in on three entrants:  #6 “Forte”, #8 “Angel of Empire”, and #4 “National Treasure”.   Those same pundits will ignore this blogger’s pick, i.e. Gary and Mary West’s #7 “Hit Show” (10-1).  Those two a.m. timed workouts in May signal fitness.  His dam “Actress” banked $500K on the track.  What’s not to like? 

The wager:  $10 W/P/S #7, then $2 Double #7 with #3.  Total = $32.   

 

Race No. 13.  Post time 7:47 P.M.    An 8 1/2  furlong turf race restricted to NYS Breds.    Purse = $90K.

Christophe’s #3 “Clear Conscience” (5-1) is not a bad alternative in this spot.  His dam-side is decent enough and his trainer is good at placing them where they can win.  If he does win, I’m hoping this completes the Manuel Franco Double.  The wager:  $2 Win and Place #3.  Total = $4.  

Total Wagers for Saturday, June 10 = $75.

Total wagers for both Friday and Saturday = $127.

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Pimlico

Friday and Saturday, May 19-20, 2023

Weather watch: 

 Friday:  Partly sunny and in the 70s.

 Saturday:  Overcast with showers and in the 70s.    

Short Note.

This is the only post for both days.  

Friday’s Card

Race No. 12.  Post time 5:10 P.M.  The Pimlico Special.  A 9 1/2 furlong, Grade III dirt race.  Purse = $250K.

  Last year’s winner:  “First Captain” at 5-1 odds.  Last year’s pick”  “Vindictive” who finished second. 

Both #2 “Rattle N Roll” (9-5) and #5 “Law Professor” (5-2) look good on paper, but trainer Todd Pletcher’s #1 “Kuchar” (10-1) could be sitting on a race.  Those 10-1 odds are too juicy to ignore.  The wager:  $2 Win #1, then $2 double #1 with #7.  Total = $4.  

.

Race No. 13.  Post time 5:44 P.M.  The Black-Eyed Susan.  A Grade II, 9 furlong dirt race restricted to three year-old fillies.   Purse = $300K.

  Last year’s winner:  “Interstatedaydream” at 6-1 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Beguine” who finished second to last at 11-1 odds.  

Let’s start with Bob Baffert’s unbeaten #9 “Faiza” (7-5) who comes east in search of a field she can beat.  This may be that field, but not with my money.  Instead, this wallet will open for the Godolphin/Brad Cox entrant #7 “Comparative” (12-1) who is out of the unraced dam “Collective”.  This handicapper prefers broodmares who have raced, but when Godolphin is involved, that means little.  Godolphin owns top broodmares.  Another factor in selecting “Comparative” is her two recent a.m. timed workouts.  Both the May 6th and May 13th a.m. workouts were outstanding.  The wager:  $3 Win and  Place #7, then $3 Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double #7 with #8 “First Mission”.  Total = $9.  

Total Wagers for Friday May 19th = $13.

 

Pimlico

Saturday, May 20, 2023

Race No. 12.  Post time 4:12 P.M.  The James Murphy.  An ungraded 8  furlong turf stake for three year-olds.   Purse= $100K.

  Last year’s winner: “Joe” at 2-1 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Riot House” who was scratched.  

This year’s pick is #4 “Top Recruit” (15-1).   Yes, it is this horse’s first start of the year but this is not the strongest field ever assembled either. This Mike Maker trainee is out of “Oh So Bella”, who is out of a top broodmare that produced four $100K earners.  “Top Recruit” is not the worst stab of the program.    The wager:  $2 W/P #4, then $2 Double #4 with #8 “First Mission”. Total = $6.   

Race No. 13.  Post time 7:01 P.M.  The Preakness.  A 9 1/2 furlong, Grade I dirt race restricted to three year-olds.  Purse = $1.5 Million.

Last year’s winner:  “Early Voting” at 6-1.  Last year’s pick: “Epicenter”.  

Thankfully “Mage” is showing up.  He is the only horse from the Derby field to come to Baltimore.   Say “hello” to racing without Lasix.  The pick is #8 “First  Mission” (5-2) who won The Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in fine form.   No wager here because I don’t trust him to run back to his Lexington form.    

Total Wagers for Saturday May 20th = $6. 

Total Wagers for both days = $19.

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Kentucky Derby 

Churchill Downs

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Weather watch:  Chance of showers.  Not hot.     

Last year’s pick:.

 “Cyberknife”, who finished 18th.  Prior to this race, “Cyberknife” had won the Arkansas Derby in not-so-fast fashion. Last year’s Derby winner?  “Rich Strike” at 80-1.     

This year

   In prior years, this blogger would handicap all races on the card.  This year?  The bankroll will be largely devoted to the winner if the 2023 Arkansas Derby - - - #14 “Angel of Empire” (8-1) - - along with others in exacta wagers. 

  As shown in the wagering below, the likely favorite #15 “Forte” (3-1) will not appear on any ticket.  This wallet cannot support an offspring of “Violence” to run the 10 furlong distance.   His dam “Queen Caroline” was a successful miler as shown by her $400K earnings, mostly on the Maryland circuit.  In summary, if “Forte” wins, I lose.

  Trainer Todd Pletcher’s other two entrants, i.e. #5 “Tapit Trice” (5-1) and #6 “Kingsbarns” (12-1), have better breeding than “Forte”.  In the Louisiana Derby, “Kingsbarns” went to the front and never looked back.  In the Bluegrass Stakes, “Tapit Trice” stayed within range of the leader, then pounced in the late stages.  While nothing in horse racing is certain, no one would be surprised if these two run similar races today.  

  The X Factor today is the Japanese entrant #17 “Derma Sotogake” (10-1).  While he has raced eight times, his last race was in Dubai seven weeks ago.  This son of the hard-knocking “Mind Your Biscuits” could be anything.   

  Finally, the lightly-raced #8 “Mage” is out of the dam “Puca”.  She banked $300K for trainer Bill Mott.  More importantly, the sire of “Mage” is out of the sire “Good Magic”, himself a son of “Curlin’.  Even though this colt has only had three lifetime starts, he could be anything too.   

 

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:57 P.M.  The Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve.  A 10 furlong, Grade I dirt race restricted to 3 year-olds.  Purse = $3 Million.

The move by #14 “Angel of Empire” (8-1) in the Arkansas Derby is most memorable.  The knocks against this colt are his modest breeding (Classic Empire by Armony’s Angel), which was reflected in his sales-ring price ($70,000 @ Sept. ’21 Keeneland yearling sale). 

  As for breeding, on his “plus side”, his maternal grand dam “Seeinsbelievein” dropped “Conquest Big E”, a winner of $435K in 34 starts.  That broodmare is out of “Carson City”, which is a big plus to this blogger. 

  Secondly, #8 “Mage” (15-1) is just too well bred to expect a poor performance.  Yes, this entrant is very lightly raced and only has one maiden win.  The “morning line” odds  on “Mage” at 15-1 is much too low.  His post-time odds should be north of 22-1.  

  The wager will include an exacta “key”, with #14 finishing either first or second to the following:

    -   #5 “Tapit Trice” (5-1) 

• #6 “Kingsbarns” (12-1), 
• #8 “Mage” (15-1) 
• #17 “Derma Sotogake” (10-1)    

The wagers:  

$15 W/P/S #14 “Angel of Empire”

$2  W/P/S #8 “Mage”.   

$1 Exacta #14 beating either #5, #6, #8, or #17. 

 $1 Exacta:  Either #5, #6, #8, or #17 beating #14.   

Total = $59  

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